Preliminary Observations about Kenya’s Future

I’ve been asking people whether they are hopeful for Kenya. I get divided responses. Some are hopeful because they say the horror of last year’s violence shook everybody deeply, so they will draw back from any repetition. Some, too, are hopeful because they perceive a different spirit in the younger generation, who are much less bound to their own ethnic group and far less willing for politicians to lead them. (Kenyans universally blame their leaders for the country’s plight. In a month reading daily newspapers I have not seen a single favorable word for the current coalition government.)

On the other hand, many Kenyans express fear that violence will break out again at the next election, because so far the government has so far done almost nothing to change the conditions—no electoral reform, no revised constitution, no accountability for those who organized or encouraged mob violence, no settlement of crucial squabbles about land. Two days ago I interviewed a member of the Kenyan Human Rights Commission who told me that she dreads the next election (in 2012). In talking to communities that experienced violence she was told that they were determined never to let it happen again—which is to say, they plan to defend themselves and are preparing to do so.

Everybody says that the church simply mirrored the problems of the country—that pastors and bishops were caught up in their tribal perspectives. Some announced to their congregations that God had spoken to them and anointed one side or the other to lead Kenya. In one town the pastor’s fellowship had to stop meeting for prayer because they could not agree on how to pray.

However, it wasn’t all failure. When violence erupted it called some Christians to their senses. Many individuals sheltered people from a threatened group, at the risk of their own lives; churches mobilized spontaneously to help people burned out of their homes and businesses; and church leaders immediately realized they had to meet together despite their deep differences.

Right now everything is peaceful. By nature Kenyans are an optimistic people, and like all of us they go about their business without necessarily worrying about the big questions. Different ethnic groups routinely meet, pray, and work together; friendships are common. But there’s a shadow over Kenya, and a sense of uncertainty about the future.